[Population projections: goals, methods, hypotheses].

Revue d'epidemiologie et de sante publique

PubMedID: 10804428

Dittgen A. [Population projections: goals, methods, hypotheses]. Rev Epidemiol Sante Publique. 2000;48(2):199-211.
Population projections generally use the component method which consists in adapting sample size by age and sex from mortality, fertility and migration hypotheses. This exercise is not always aimed a providing projection data, but may also serve to analyze factors changing in the population. Comparatively long-term demographic forecasts, particularly for mortality, can be made due to the major inertia of demographic phenomena. However, the quality of such predictions depends on the quality of knowledge of past evolution in the demographic factors and on the capacity to forecast their future evolution.